New Online Risk-Stratification Tool Accurately Predicts Likelihood of Deterioration in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients

The tool assesses 11 measurements routinely collected from patients, including age, gender, and physical measurements (such as oxygen levels) along with some standard laboratory tests and calculates a percentage risk of deterioration, known as the '4C Deterioration Score'. This innovation builds on the Consortium's previous work developing the '4C Mortality Score' to predict the percentage risk of death from COVID-19 after admission to hospital. The '4C Mortality Score' is already recommended for use by NHS England to guide anti-viral treatments (Remdesivir). Doctors will now see both the '4C Deterioration Score' and the '4C Mortality Score' at the same time, using the same tool.

The tool was developed using data from 74,944 individuals with COVID-19 admitted to 260 hospitals across England, Scotland and Wales, between February 6 and August 26, 2020. Using a multivariable logistic regression model (where several measures are used to predict an outcome), researchers tested the 11 measures (age/gender/physical measures/lab tests) against the large patient cohort, to establish how, and to what to degree each of the measures affected the likelihood of deterioration. Furthermore, researchers assessed how well the tool performed in nine NHS regions and found that it performed similarly well in each, suggesting that it is likely to be useful across the NHS. Importantly, the new risk score showed superior performance across the NHS, in comparison to previous risk scores. The tool can potentially be incorporated into NHS Trusts' Electronic Health Record System - used to manage all patient care - so that risk scores are automatically generated for patients. Researchers suggest that the tool could also be used in other countries for risk-stratification, but should first be evaluated to test its accuracy in these settings.

"Accurate risk-stratification at the point of admission to hospital will give doctors greater confidence about clinical decisions and planning ahead for the needs of individual patients," said co-senior and corresponding author, Professor Mahdad Noursadeghi (UCL Infection & Immunity). "The addition of the new 4C Deterioration Score alongside the 4C Mortality Score will provide clinicians with an evidence-based measure to identify those who will need increased hospital support during their admission, even if they have a low risk of death."

"The scale and wide geographical coverage of the ISARIC4C study across the country was critical to the development of this prediction tool," said first author Dr. Rishi Gupta (UCL Institute of Global Health). "Our analysis provides very encouraging evidence that the 4C Deterioration tool is likely to be useful for clinicians across England, Scotland and Wales to support clinical decision-making."

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ISARIC4C