Calculator Tool Predicts Patient Risk After Bariatric Surgery

The 2007 ACS NSQIP data, which included 11,023 patients undergoing bariatric procedures for morbid obesity, was used to develop the risk calculator; the 2008 dataset was used for validation.

The risk calculator showed that recent heart attack or angina, stroke, high blood pressure, use of blood thinners, limited ability to perform basic activities of daily living, higher weight, and the type of bariatric procedure were associated with increased risk. Using the risk calculator allows surgeons to accurately model and predict exact patient postoperative morbidities, which include wound infections, sepsis, heart attack, kidney failure, lung failure, and other conditions. The risk calculator will help in surgical decision-making and will help patients better understand what they can expect during recovery in order to prepare for a bariatric operation. The study was published in the March 2011 issue of the Journal of the American College of Surgeons.

"Patients who are morbidly obese already face great health risks and bariatric surgery can be a life-saving option,” said lead author Prateek Gupta, MD. "The risk calculator will aid patients in better preparing for their operation by understanding the true risks and benefits of a bariatric procedure. It will also assist the surgeon and patient in choosing the type of bariatric procedure. While the risk of death after bariatric operations is extremely low, obese patients are at an increased risk of postoperative complications, making the risk calculator particularly useful.”

"Surgical decision making and informed consent rely on accurate information about surgical risks,” added study coauthor R. Armour Forse, MD, a bariatric surgeon at Creighton University Medical Center. "Making sure our patients understand their procedure and any associated risks involved, is an extremely important, but sometimes difficult conversation. Using this tool correctly should help patients feel more at ease with the process and potential outcomes knowing that their physician is being open with them.”

The bariatric surgery risk calculator is available for free download online (please see Related Links below).

Related Links:
Creighton University Medical Center
Bariatric Surgery Risk Calculator