Economic Downturn Predicted to Have Severe Effects on Global Health

The effects on health are likely to be manifold. At a global level, health care, already precarious in many developing countries, is likely to decline further as humanitarian aid dries up and government expenditures fall, with millions more forced into poverty and malnutrition, particularly women and children. This is likely to be further exacerbated by the collapse of business and banking institutions as world trade declines, on a background of raised food and fuel costs. Women and girls could suffer disproportionately as the industries that employ them shrink, and spending on women's health care--including antenatal and maternity services--is cut. Excess deaths can also be expected, particularly in developing countries, as poorer patients defer medical treatment and health services deteriorate, with the greatest impact likely to be on the most vulnerable patients including children, the disabled, and the elderly.

Disease control is also expected to suffer during the current crisis. There is growing concern that funding for treatment, research, and global control of malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS is being cut back, and that other currently under-funded programs for serious infectious diseases would not get the investment they require. Resources for disease surveillance and laboratory capacity could also be cut back, which may seriously impact on the timely identification and mitigation of emerging epidemics and pandemics.

Even in more developed countries, health care and services are expected to suffer. The effects will be varied, depending on the mix of public and private healthcare institutions in the system, but will have a common theme. The financial downturn is already making private health care less viable for an increasing percentage of people, particularly in those developed countries where private health care forms a significant sector of the overall healthcare system. This places increased pressure on publicly funded health systems, also expected to suffer as state and national coffers dry up. As governments will be simultaneously trying to reduce expenditure from their shrinking budgets by reducing health workforce numbers and healthcare costs during a time when demand continues to increase, the strains on healthcare services will continue to intensify. The editorial was published online on June 9, 2009, in Emerging Health Threats Journal.

"The ultimate impact of the current crisis on health and health services globally will not be known for years to come, although we can probably safely assume that it will not be positive,” concluded the editorial's author Andrew Robertson, editor-in-chief of Emerging Health Threats Journal and director of disaster management, regulation, and planning at the department of health for Western Australia. "As a journal dedicated to emerging health threats, we propose that urgent research and critical analysis are necessary to look into the impact that this economic crisis is having on health in both developed and developing countries, and into identifying solutions than may ameliorate the most detrimental effects of this potential healthcare disaster.”

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Emerging Health Threats Journal