Large Surgeon Shortage Forecast in the USA

The demand for cardiothoracic surgery, for example, is forecast to increase by 42% and the demand for cataract surgery by 47%. In 2002, the 65-and-older age group will increase by 53%. Since the training of surgeons requires eight to 14 years, the researchers say there is not time to train enough surgeons to avoid a shortage.

Researchers used data from a 1996 survey of surgical services and census forecast data to reach their conclusions. The demand for general surgery (vascular, abdominal, gastrointestinal, hernia, breast, and pediatric surgery) is forecast to increase 31% by 2020. Urology surgeries (procedures on the kidney, prostate, and bladder) will increase 35%, while orthopedics (surgery of the knee, shoulder, and other joints) will increase 28%, the same as neurosurgery. The smallest increase, 14%, will occur in otolaryngology (ear, nose, throat). Many patients needing these services are under 15.

"We need to develop more effective ways to address the medical and surgical needs of older adults, as well as provide strategies to support surgeons,” said lead author Dr. David A. Etzioni, a clinical scholar in the division of general surgery at the University of California, Los Angeles, School of Medicine (USA).


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